Very Good article on Seb, car development, Ferrari F1 2018 and Leclerc.
Sebastian Vettel finished 2018 a beaten man, demonstrating equal parts realism and denial. As he reflected on where things had gone wrong, he seemed to grasp the problem. But did he have it in focus? For under different circumstances, this man could have emerged from last season as world champion.
At the very least he should have taken his title fight with Lewis Hamilton to the final race. Instead, he meekly surrendered to
the Mercedes driver in Mexico, with two races still to go.
When asked about the way in which he lost the championship, Vettel would refer, in the first instance, to the stall in Ferrari's development at Singapore when a new floor dropped them off the pace for three races until the problem was rectified. Only after emphasising that point would he talk about his own errors.
"The year I've had, I don't think I ever have any problems raising my hand if I made a mistake," he insisted. "I think knowing, as a racing driver, how quickly things can go wrong, how quickly things could have gone differently this year, yeah, I have to review a couple of things.
"But there are other things that went wrong and don't need a lot of reviewing or overcomplicating. I know what I need to do. Certainly, here and there, looking back, I haven't been at the top of my game. So I look at myself first; I think I can be better than I was at times.
"Having said that, we also had a lot of races where we got everything out of the car and the package and I felt that I did everything I could.
I was happy with that. But that's how it goes, that's sometimes why you love racing and sometimes why you hate racing. For now, I
need a bit of time just to shut things down. We have a little bit of time to digest and analyse and, yeah, I've always tried to improve things. I don't think I need to change things upside down but certainly in there I can adjust and get stronger."
Of course, a driver has to talk up the positives; it's how they reinforce their self-belief. But the reality is that the driver failings had a far greater overall influence on the outcome of last year's world championship than any perceived issue with the car. There were seven races in which Vettel made mistakes that had an effect on the championship. And five occasions when Ferrari's operational management had an impact on those situations, creating the environment in which Vettel's errors occurred.
So what happens if you undertake a hypothetical replay of the season, removing the effects of human error? Give Hamilton back the Australia win that Mercedes' strategic error lost him, for example, and expunge Vettel's mistakes in Baku, Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the US, replacing them with the results he could or should have had. The result is that Vettel would have been champion, even with the technical issues in Singapore, Russia and Japan. So what went wrong for him in 2018? And how can he stop history repeating itself in 2019?
Post-season, but before the ousting of team principal Maurizio Arrivabene, Ferrari undertook an internal audit of what had gone wrong over the course of 2018. Their conclusion was that, fundamentally, all of their problems stemmed from needing a better car, that it was not as strong as depicted in the media, and that, above all, it needed much more effective development - a particular focus for them was the floor that didn't work and simply should not have been introduced.
Ferrari accepted that Vettel's error at Hockenheim - which caused a 32-point swing in the championship - came at the worst possible moment. But they also believe that his mistakes did not happen in isolation, and that this error, and others, arose from a feeling that he was having to force the car into places it was not quite capable of going.
And what of the times when Vettel appeared to be overanxious (such as when he swore at his mechanics, telling them not to damage the car's floor during a pitstop in qualifying in Belgium) or questioned the team's operations (such as when asking why he was being kept behind team-mate Kimi Raikkonen despite being on fresher tyres in Germany)? Ferrari's view is that this was not Vettel losing it. He was just demonstrating his awareness that everything needed to be perfect in order to beat Mercedes.
Yet it's easy to question this analysis. Without the lock-up that converted victory to fourth place in Baku, the crash with Valtteri Bottas at the start of the French GP, or the penalty he earned for blocking Renault's Carlos Sainz Jr in qualifying in Austria, Vettel would have ended the first 10 races of a 21-race season with a 36-point lead over Hamilton, rather than eight. Had he then gone on to win in Germany, with Hamilton in second place, Vettel would have headed into the final 10 races 50 points ahead, rather than 17 behind. And there were more mistakes to come.
But rare is the sporting year that goes by without any errors - even if Hamilton himself pretty much managed it last year. And it is unquestionable that Ferrari did lose its way on development with the new floor, and did not manage to recover until it took it off again in Austin. After that it was faster than Mercedes in two of the last four races. So, Ferrari argues that mistakes were made by both driver and team, but that while the car was competitive it never had the sort of pace advantage shown by Mercedes from time to time - such as in Melbourne or Russia, when the silver cars were around 0.6 seconds clear of the Ferraris.
Ferrari knows it can be a winning team, it says it has proved it. It just has to sustain that standard more often and in more areas. Yet many will not be entirely convinced by this. After all, how can you argue the case that the Ferrari car wasn't good enough, when without Vettel's mistakes he could have taken nine wins to Hamilton's eight in 2018? And could Vettel's errors be attributed to pushing too hard in a car that was not fast enough? Or did they result from the pressure of carrying a team whose management decisions he felt he could not entirely trust and rely on?
All of this happened in the context of a year in which Ferrari lost its hugely influential president, Sergio Marchionne. The 66-year old, who died in July, was not only a powerful and dominant figure within Ferrari, he was the architect of the team's revival. The reorganisation that transformed Ferrari from being a competent but fundamentally conservative team in 2016 into one of design innovation and standard-setting in '17 had been championed by Marchionne. How far
might the ramifications of his death extend?
In the short term, Marchionne's influence is extending beyond the grave. Before his death, following complications during surgery for cancer, Marchionne had decided to do two key things ahead of 2019: replace Kimi Raikkonen with Charles Leclerc; and remove team principal Maurizio Arrivabene, making technical director Mattia Binotto the new team boss.
Both of these moves have now happened just as he planned. Having installed Marchionne as president, and watched the company flourish under his leadership, both in the marketplace and out on track, it should be no surprise that the interconnected boards of Fiat and Ferrari - and Ferrari chairman John Elkann - decided to follow through with Machionne's wishes.
Arrivabene's fan club was not extensive within the F1 paddock, nor, it seems, within Ferrari.
It was Marchionne who imposed the strategy of not building pressure on the team through ill-advised comments in the media, but Arrivabene who interpreted that as a virtual blanket media silence. The two men also had differing approaches in public. Marchionne, true to his reputation, was bullish and direct, but respectful and engaging, while Arrivabene, on the occasions he did talk, was aggressive and curt.
As far as Vettel is concerned, you had only to watch the body language between him and Arrivabene in unguarded moments to see the tensions. And this occasionally burst out into the open. To give just one example of this, towards the end of 2016 Arrivabene told Italian TV that Vettel needed to earn his place and salary at the team, just like anyone else.
Mattia Binotto is highly rated as a manager and, while it is obviously as yet unknown how he will fare in his new role, it is not hard to imagine that, assuming the culture of intimidation is removed, Vettel will respond better. In recent years Vettel has at times seemed weighed down by the pressures of being at Ferrari. Where, for example, is the amusing, jokey Anglophile, who used to talk of his love for The Beatles and Monty Python? Vettel was at his best driving for Red Bull, where, yes, he had a car advantage, but where he was also left to get on with the driving. And where, more importantly, the team was run sufficiently well that he felt he did not have to worry about anything else.
How all this plays out under Ferrari's new leadership will be revealed as events unfold over the course of 2019. But these issues provide a backdrop to the season; a context for Ferrari's situation that does not apply at Mercedes, where Hamilton has grown ever more comfortable - especially since the departure of former team-mate Nico Rosberg. Equally, whether intended or not, there is an implicit conclusion to Ferrari's analysis: it realises that it will need a better car even than it had in 2018 to make up for what, on the evidence of the last two seasons, is a shortfall in the cockpit.
Vettel moved to Ferrari with the ambition of emulating his childhood hero Michael Schumacher and winning at least one world title with them. But he is in danger of following in the footsteps of a more recent predecessor - Fernando Alonso. All three men spent their first four seasons at Ferrari falling short of the title. Will Vettel's destiny echo that of Schumacher - who won in his fifth year, ending a long drought for the team - or Alonso, who, overwhelmed by frustration, quit at the end of his, having lost faith that the team could deliver for him.
Both Alonso and Vettel were involved in two close title fights in their first four seasons at Maranello. But it is here that the parallels end. Alonso came within four and three points of his rival in 2010 and '12. The closest Vettel has managed, despite a car significantly and demonstrably closer on performance in '17 and '18 to Hamilton's Mercedes than Alonso's was to Vettel's Red Bull, was 46 points in '17. He was a massive 88 adrift by the end of last season. In Alonso's case, the shortfall was very clearly
in the machinery - he overachieved in less-than-competitive cars. Vettel has underachieved in more competitive ones.
Meanwhile, just as Hamilton's situation within his team has started to become more settled, Vettel's is facing increasing upheaval. Raikkonen has now departed, a team-mate who was not only reliably slower than Vettel, but also obediently compliant on the few occasions the team needed him out of the way. In Raikkonen's place comes Charles Leclerc, an ambitious rookie racer, showing every indication of being a potential future superstar. The 21-year old is a Ferrari protege. His arrival is sure to change the dynamic within the team, and there will inevitably be questions as to whether Leclerc can do to Vettel what Daniel Ricciardo did at Red Bull in 2014 - namely arrive and start beating the nominal team leader - and how Vettel and Ferrari would respond to that.
Of course, it's easy to speculate about that, but much harder to actually do it. As drivers go, Vettel is still a class act. But if Ricciardo can do it in a situation in which Vettel was coming off the back of four consecutive world titles, it seems justified to question whether the talented Leclerc will do the same thing after four seasons in which Vettel's reputation has been anything but enhanced. Five years at any team is a long time, especially if the dominant emotion is one of frustration at constantly falling short. Vettel has one more year remaining on his contract after 2019. Whether he stays on at Ferrari any longer is likely to depend on his and Leclerc's performances over the next 18 months.
On the positive side, Vettel heads into 2019 as the lead driver of the team that certainly had the fastest car for much of last season and, all things being equal, he should definitely be looking forward to another solid title campaign in which he has a very good chance at equalling Hamilton's haul of five world championships. But while he has the opportunity to make it work, the reality is that he provokes as many questions as answers. He's clearly very fast, but equally obviously fragile and prone to making errors under pressure. Can he turn things around? Can Ferrari provide him with the environment in which that's possible?
"For now I need a bit of time just to shut things down," Vettel said, as he headed off to spend the winter break at home with his partner and children in Switzerland. "I don't know. It's a bit like skiing; maybe you learn something overnight before you go on the slopes again the next day. Obviously our night, it would help to hibernate. But I think we have a little bit of time to digest and analyse. I don't think I need to change things upside down but certainly in there I can adjust and get stronger."
Leclerc: Vettel's greatest threat?
Ferrari's second tweet of 2019, right after wishing their 2.2 million followers a happy new year, was to welcome Charles Leclerc to the team. Their third, posted the next day, celebrated his achievements.
Leclerc, Ferrari announced, had never finished lower than second in any championship throughout his junior career. And he had won eight of those titles over the course of 10 years. It was a reminder of the impeccable credentials that have earned the Monegasque a Ferrari seat in only his second year in F1, following his stellar debut with Sauber in 2018.
Leclerc comes from a racing family. His late father, Herve, competed in Formula 3, and was best friends with Philippe Bianchi, father of the former Manor driver Jules Bianchi, who died of injuries sustained in a crash at the 2014 Japanese Grand Prix. Jules Bianchi was Charles Leclerc's godfather, although being only eight years older he was more like a big brother. Leclerc has talked frequently about the help Jules gave him as he made his way through the junior categories. It was Jules who introduced Leclerc to his influential manager Nicolas Todt, son of FIA president Jean. Todt opened the doors, and Leclerc has pushed them wide apart.
It is extremely unusual for Ferrari to promote a driver into its team so early in their F1 career. Leclerc is the least experienced driver they have taken on since Gilles Villeneuve was given a seat after just one race for McLaren back in 1977. But former Ferrari engineer Rob Smedley sums up what so many feel about Leclerc's promotion.
"He's a guy with great talent and a huge future - probably the biggest talent we've had come into the sport in a while," Smedley notes. "It's a pleasure to watch him. As long as Ferrari manages it correctly, he will be a huge success."
https://www.autosport.com/f1/feature...ate-schumacher
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