Originally Posted by
ramesh
AUTOSPORT Analysis on pre season testing
We dissect Formula 1's pre-season testing data
As F1 teams return to their bases to assess what they have learned from two weeks of testing in Barcelona, BEN ANDERSON analyses the pace of the cars and the race simulations of Mercedes and Ferrari
By Ben Anderson
Grand Prix editor
Ferrari, Mercedes
They say it's 'only testing', that you cannot read too much into what is going on and that no one really knows where they are relative to everyone else in Formula 1. 'We won't know until we get to Saturday afternoon in Melbourne', they cry.
They are right, but nobody wants to wait that long. The modern world is impatient and thirsty for information. We want to know now!
Formula 1 has spent eight of the past 12 days pounding around Barcelona's Catalunya Circuit, and although it was 'only testing' we can start to build a picture of where the various teams stand as they prepare to head to Australia.
It is not clear, and by no means definitive. Much more learning, understanding, work and development will be done before the cars next turn wheels again in Albert Park on March 18. But some interesting nuggets of information can be gleaned.
The two basic measures are naturally pace and reliability. Ideally, you want to prove (at least to yourself) that you have both these fundamental bases covered before you board the plane to Australia.
Hamilton admitted he thought Mercedes' mileage plan for the tests was 'crazy'
Hamilton admitted he thought Mercedes' mileage plan for the tests was 'crazy' © LAT
On the reliability score, Mercedes undoubtedly leads the way yet again. Last pre-season, the champion team completed 1340 laps across 12 days of testing. This year Mercedes resolved to do the same amount of work in four fewer days. The fact the W07 did 1294 laps in two weeks suggests the team got frighteningly close to achieving its target.
Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg had to split driving duties for each of the final six days to cope with that punishing schedule, and new parts had to be fitted for the final day of running simply because the sheer volume of track time had worn some out to the extent they started to show drop-offs in downforce levels on Mercedes' data!
Watching the Mercedes juggernaut in action is a mighty sight, both in terms of operational skill and on track. The fact it was throwing new developments at the W07 during the first test, while others were still trying to make sure their new machines weren't falling apart at the seams, is a testament to the strength of Mercedes' development teams and the accuracy of its dynos.
This level of predictive testing seems beyond Ferrari right now, though it surely realises the need to invest heavily in the sort of infrastructure Ross Brawn made a priority before he left Mercedes at the end of 2013. When Mercedes chiefs talk of living through the Brawn legacy, this must be a big part of what they mean.
TOTAL LAPS COMPLETED ACROSS 2016 PRE-SEASON
1. Mercedes 1294
2. Toro Rosso 1049
3. Williams 856
4. Ferrari 854
5. Red Bull 817
6. Force India 779
7. Renault 776
8. McLaren 710
9. Manor 484
10. Haas 474
11. Sauber* 406
*Only ran its 2016 car for four days
The lap count also looks good for Toro Rosso, which faced a race against time to get its Ferrari-engined STR11 ready in time for the start of testing. McLaren-Honda was much improved, almost doubling its total from that disastrous 2015 pre-season.
But the harsh realities of F1 hit home at Haas, which struggled badly with engine and brake-by-wire problems in week two, after a solid debut at the first test. There were niggling reliability problems for Ferrari too, but it improved markedly over the final two days of running - logging more than 130 laps each day and completing full race distances with Kimi Raikkonen and Sebastian Vettel.
Taking a furtive glance at the headline times, things look good for Ferrari in terms of pure pace. It topped the table on five of the eight days of testing held.
RANKING BASED ON OUTRIGHT TIMES
1. Ferrari (Raikkonen) 1m22.765s (ultra-soft)
2. Mercedes (Rosberg) 1m23.022s (soft)
3. Force India (Hulkenberg) 1m23.110s (super-soft)
4. Toro Rosso (Sainz) 1m23.134s (ultra-soft)
5. Williams (Massa) 1m23.190s (soft)
6. Renault (Magnussen) 1m23.933s (super-soft)
7. Red Bull (Kvyat) 1m24.293s (ultra-soft)
8. McLaren (Button) 1m24.714s (ultra-soft)
9. Sauber (Nasr) 1m24.760s (soft)
10. Manor (Wehrlein) 1m24.913s (ultra-soft)
11. Haas (Grosjean) 1m25.255s (soft)
Obviously the tyres constitute a massive variable in this equation. All of Pirelli's five dry compounds were available, but the medium and hard are traditionally used at May's Spanish GP here.
Pirelli says the hard compound does not work so well in winter testing, because the conditions are much colder, which is probably why most running is done on the soft and medium rubber.
As for the quickest tyres, they are not designed for this circuit, which perhaps explains why there is so much variation in terms of laptime gain from one to the other, and why this is not consistent even between drivers of the same car.
Kvyat set Red Bull's best time, but it was only 0.2s up on Ricciardo despite being two steps softer
Red Bull is still limited by the Renault engine, badged a TAG-Heuer in the RB12 © LAT
Daniil Kvyat unsurprisingly managed Red Bull's fastest lap of the pre-season on the ultra-soft tyre during the first week, but team-mate Daniel Ricciardo was only two tenths slower on the soft tyre on the final day of testing.
When Pirelli estimates a theoretical 0.5-0.6s gap from soft to super-soft, then another 0.6-0.7s from super-soft to ultra-soft, the difference between these two drivers in the same car simply doesn't add up.
Of course there will be discrepancies between conditions and fuel loads on different days, but much else is rendered irrelevant if the tyres are not working correctly. Mercedes didn't bother to use either of the softest two compounds during pre-season, even though the ultra-soft is brand new for this year, which tells you something about the suitability of that rubber for this track in winter.
We don't have absolutely reliable data for the pace of each car on the soft and medium tyres, but we can build a rough picture from the laptimes we were able to spot throughout our spell in Spain.
RANKING ON SOFT TYRES
1. Ferrari (Raikkonen) 1m23.0s
2. Mercedes (Rosberg) 1m23.0s
3. Williams (Massa) 1m23.2s
4. Toro Rosso (Sainz) 1m23.9s
5. Force India (Hulkenberg) 1m24.2s
6. Red Bull (Ricciardo) 1m24.4s
7. Sauber (Nasr) 1m24.7s
8. McLaren (Alonso) 1m24.7s
9. Renault (Magnussen) 1m24.9s
10. Haas (Grosjean) 1m25.2s
11. Manor (Wehrlein) 1m27.0s
The soft-tyre times are probably a more accurate barometer of where each car stands on pure pace right now, and in any case it's only fair to judge them against the championship's benchmark.
Here we see that Ferrari and Mercedes are neck-and-neck with Raikkonen and Rosberg doing almost the same laptime two days apart, both set during what we presume to be qualifying simulations in the morning.
Williams will be massively encouraged by the time Felipe Massa set on the Thursday of the second test, which puts the FW38 within striking distance of the top two and well clear of the chasing pack. The rest of the order tallies with trackside observations, which place Toro Rosso's 2015 Ferrari-engined car as likely best of the rest, but not too far clear of Force India and Red Bull, which is clearly still lacking performance from its TAG-Heuer-badged Renault engine.
There is a significant gap to the works Renault team, which has struggled with a few reliability issues throughout pre-season and hasn't reached the same level of chassis and engine integration as the customer squad. The RS16 also clearly lacks downforce compared to the RB12.
Sauber looks in slightly better shape than both Renault and McLaren right now, which is perhaps surprising given Sauber's new C35 did not appear until the second test. The drivers were confident it would be a decent step forward over last year's effort, though, and so it appears to be.
McLaren and Honda are clearly well ahead of this time last year, but still adrift of the front runners
McLaren-Honda is clearly well ahead of its 2015 position, but still down the order © LAT
McLaren has endured another difficult start. Honda has undoubtedly found more power and improved the Energy Recovery Systems, but it seems this has only raised the alliance to somewhere approaching Renault levels of performance.
On top of this, McLaren has struggled to get the MP4-31 chassis working properly during the final part of testing, which the team says is the result of some 2016 aerodynamic parts not being ready in time.
The full 2016 aero package is expected for Melbourne, where McLaren will hope to cure the chronic oversteer that plagued its car over the final three days of the second test. The new parts introduced on Wednesday did not work properly in isolation, which explains why McLaren actually got slower as the test progressed.
Haas has paid the price of limited mileage during the second test, but with a bit more refinement the car is basically fast enough to cling on to the Sauber, Renault, McLaren group, while the Manor-Mercedes - though eminently respectable - is cut adrift slightly when you discount 'glory' runs on the softest rubber.
PURE PACE RANKING ON MEDIUM TYRES
1. Mercedes (Rosberg) 1m24.1s (Thursday)
2. Ferrari (Vettel) 1m24.6s (Thursday)
3. Williams (Massa) 1m24.8s (Thursday)
4. Toro Rosso (Verstappen) 1m24.9s (Thursday)
5. Force India (Hulkenberg) 1m25.2s (Thursday)
6. Red Bull (Ricciardo) 1m25.2s (Wednesday)
7. Renault (Magnussen) 1m25.8s (Wednesday)
8. Haas (Gutierrez) 1m26.6s (Tuesday)
9. Sauber (Ericsson) 1m26.8s (Friday)
10. McLaren (Button) 1m26.8s (Wednesday)
11. Manor (Wehrlein) 1m28.4s (Wednesday)
The fastest medium-tyre times, usually set during the mornings, suggest Mercedes has a significant advantage over the rest, with Ferrari only fractionally ahead of Williams, and Toro Rosso not far behind.
But the basic order is fairly similar to the soft tyre ranking, except for Renault and Haas being a little more relatively competitive. But F1 is not only about pure pace of course, and fortunately Mercedes and Ferrari provided us with race simulations during the afternoons of this week's final test. Hamilton and Rosberg went first, on Tuesday and Wednesday, before Ferrari (having overcome those earlier reliability gremlins) went for it with Raikkonen on Thursday and Vettel on Friday.
They all did a very short stint on softs to begin with, which is discounted on account of being too small to be meaningful.
Mercedes then did three full stints (to complete a race distance) on mediums. Ferrari split strategies, with Raikkonen completing the final stint of his race simulation on hards, Vettel on mediums.
First stint race sim
AVERAGE LAPTIMES (11 laps)
1. Raikkonen 1m29.464s
2. Hamilton 1m29.618s
3. Vettel 1m30.082s
4. Rosberg 1m30.091s
5. Ricciardo 1m30.290s
Both Rosberg's and Vettel's opening stints were quite inconsistent and messy, perhaps because conditions were at their worst on Wednesday and Friday afternoons. Hamilton and Raikkonen were much more competitive and consistent.
Ricciardo's stint is not directly comparable, but the Australian completed his own race run on Wednesday afternoon, which featured a long stint on medium tyres, so that has been used to give a reference to the rest of the pack.
Second stint testing
AVERAGE LAPTIMES (12 laps)
1. Vettel 1m28.800s
2. Hamilton 1m28.858s
3. Raikkonen 1m28.917s
4. Rosberg 1m29.075s
The second stint was much closer, with Vettel fractionally faster than Hamilton overall and Raikkonen not too far behind. Rosberg was closer overall but still quite inconsistent.
Final stint analysis
AVERAGE LAPTIMES (12 laps)
1. Hamilton 1m27.383s
2. Rosberg 1m28.150s
3. Vettel 1m28.217s
This is where the news is bad for Ferrari fans. Hamilton's final stint on the mediums was absolutely stunning - significantly quicker than anything Ferrari and even his own Mercedes team-mate could manage.
One would expect Rosberg to tidy up his act when it comes to the real thing, because the gap to Hamilton should not be well over 0.7s. Raikkonen's last stint is discounted, on account of him running the harder tyre. But Massa's Williams also did a long run on the hard rubber on Thursday afternoon, which makes for an interesting comparison.
Williams Ferrari
Massa was fractionally faster on average than Raikkonen over a 14-lap run on the hard tyre, to the tune of about 0.03 seconds. This, combined with Massa's eye-catching soft tyre effort over a single lap, is probably why Williams feels confident of challenging Ferrari.
What we don't know is the absolute fuel loads of each car, or the exact engine modes they were running, but it still looks pretty close between Mercedes, Ferrari and Williams, depending on how much they have all left on the table.
Bookmarks